Will Gas Prices Go Up Even More?

Gas prices probably can go higher from here, but whether they do depends mostly on one thing: oil supply risk, especially in the Middle East. As of March 10, AAA shows the U.S. national average for regular gas at $3.539 per gallon, up sharply from $3.109 a week earlier. EIA’s weekly measure is similar, showing $3.502 for the week of March 9.

Why the jump? Gasoline prices follow crude oil more than anything else. EIA says crude oil is the largest factor in U.S. retail gasoline prices, and its March outlook raised the 2026 average U.S. gasoline-price forecast to $3.34 per gallon, up from a prior forecast of $2.91. Reuters also reported that EIA now expects Brent crude to stay above $95 a barrel for the next two months because of the Iran war.

So, will prices rise more? In the near term, yes, they still could. Reuters reported that analysts were watching the Strait of Hormuz especially closely because it carries more than 20% of global oil, and some analysts said Brent could move above $100 if flows through the strait are seriously disrupted. On the other hand, Reuters also reported that oil dropped sharply on March 10 after signs of possible de-escalation, which shows how quickly prices can reverse if the market thinks supply will keep flowing.

That means the most honest answer is this: higher prices are possible, but the ceiling depends on how long the disruption lasts. If tensions ease, gas prices could cool relatively fast. If shipping through the region is impaired for weeks, the spike could last longer and spread further. Reuters cited Citi saying Brent could stay in the $80–$90 range in the short run, while Wood Mackenzie said prices could exceed $100 if tanker flows aren’t restored quickly.

As for how high gas prices can get, nobody can give an exact number with confidence. But we do know the U.S. national average has gone much higher before: AAA lists the all-time national average record for regular gasoline at $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022. California is already averaging $5.290 as of March 10, 2026, which shows some states can move well above the national figure during tighter markets.

My read from the data is that there are three realistic scenarios. In a calmer scenario, prices stay elevated for a short period, then ease back as oil retreats; that would line up with analysts expecting some retracement if supply continuity holds. In a medium-stress scenario, the national average could remain in the mid-to-upper $3s for a while. In a severe disruption scenario, especially if oil stays above $100 for long enough, a move toward or even above the old national record stops looking impossible. That last scenario is not the base case, but it is no longer something you can dismiss outright.

What should people expect next? First, more volatility. Prices may jump quickly and then pull back just as quickly. Second, regional differences will matter a lot. Refinery constraints, state fuel rules, taxes, and local supply conditions can make one state much more expensive than another. Third, spring usually puts upward pressure on prices anyway because stations shift to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce. AAA noted that this seasonal climb was already beginning before the latest geopolitical shock.

The best way to prepare is not panic-buying gas cans. It’s reducing how much you need and avoiding getting caught low if prices spike or local stations get crowded. Ready.gov advises keeping your gas tank full in case of evacuation or power outages. The U.S. Department of Energy also says aggressive driving can cut fuel economy by 15% to 30% on highways and 10% to 40% in stop-and-go traffic, and that properly inflated tires can save fuel, with DOE noting a 2–3% fuel-economy penalty when tires are significantly underinflated.

A practical prep plan is simple: keep at least half a tank, combine errands, slow down on the freeway, check tire pressure, and skip unnecessary idling. DOE materials also note that idling can use about a quarter to a half gallon per hour, depending on engine size and AC use. Those are small changes, but they matter more when prices are jumping week to week.

The big picture is that gas prices are being driven less by normal seasonal movement and more by headline risk. Right now, that means every development involving Iran, regional shipping, and oil-market expectations can hit your wallet within days. So yes, gas prices can still go higher. The real question is whether this turns into a short shock or a longer supply problem. And at the moment, the market still hasn’t decided.