Why Can’t We Predict the Future, Despite All Our Technology?

How is it possible that we are still unable to predict the future in a world where satellites can scan every part of the planet, artificial intelligence can compose poetry, and supercomputers can simulate the formation of galaxies?

It's a reasonable query. You would think that with the proliferation of data, the development of machine learning, and our increasing fixation on forecasting—from financial markets to weather patterns to possible pandemics—we would have a clear idea of what lies ahead. However, what is the reality? The future remains stubbornly unclear.

Here's why.

1. The Future Is Not a Math Issue

To be clear, forecasting the future is not the same as solving an equation. You can enter as many variables as you like, such as economic changes, scientific breakthroughs, and social trends, but human life is chaotic. Life is not governed by clear-cut, universal laws like physics is. Even the most sophisticated prediction models can be thrown off balance by a single unforeseen event, such as a pandemic, a war, or even a viral video.

2. Data, Not Destiny, Is How Technology Operates

Modern technology excels at finding trends in historical data. However, the future is more than a rehashing of the past. Consider this: could any AI have foreseen TikTok in the 1990s? Who could have predicted in 2019 that a bat in a market would bring about the end of the world?

The majority of technologies are taught to "expect the expected." However, unexpected things continue to happen in the world. Because of this, AI continues to make mistakes when it comes to black swan events, which are infrequent, significant occurrences that no algorithm can predict.

3. Human Conduct Is Totally Unpredictable

Which wild card is the largest in any prediction? We. Individuals defy trends, break the law, and change their minds. We sabotage our own systems, create strange things, start revolutions, and fall in love. It's like attempting to herd cats with a drone to predict what millions of people will decide to do tomorrow.

4. Insufficient Control and Too Many Variables

The sheer number of factors influencing the future is incomprehensible, even with the advent of quantum computing. We are unable to fully map the interactions between political decisions, natural disasters, new technologies, and individual choices.

One tiny choice can have a big impact; scientists refer to this phenomenon as the "butterfly effect." In summary, a tornado in Texas could be triggered by a butterfly's wing flap in Brazil.

5. Control and Prediction Are Not the Same

Perhaps the more fundamental query is: do we wish to control or predict the future? These are two quite different objectives. Prediction suggests a passive attitude in which we observe the future as it develops. We attempt to influence events; control is active.

Ironically, we are frequently distracted from creating the future by our fixation with forecasting it.

What Can We Do, Then?

We can improve our readiness even though we might never become prophets. We can simulate scenarios, model risks, and create more robust systems with the aid of technology. However, it won't provide us with assurance.

The future is still unknown; it can be exciting, frightening, or unexpected at any time. Perhaps that isn't such a bad thing. After all, where would the magic be if we were able to predict everything?

Conclusion: "Why can't we predict the future?" isn't the ultimate question. "How can we better live in a world where the future is always unknown?" is the question.

And perhaps, just possibly, that is where true intelligence, whether artificial or not, starts.