Share one of the most painful

Alright.

This time, I’ll share one of the most painful — and most transformative — trading experiences:

Catching a major top too early.

Not during a crash.

Not during panic.

But during the seductive final phase of a strong bull run.

This lesson cost money.

But more importantly, it rebuilt my understanding of timing, patience, and humility.

And if you focus on the market, especially movements in the VNIndex, this experience is extremely relevant.

The Environment: Late Bull Market Euphoria

The market had been trending up for months.

Banking stocks were leading.

Securities companies were exploding.

Real estate was rebounding.

VNIndex had already gained significantly.

Media optimism increased.

Retail participation surged.

Margin usage climbed.

Every dip was bought aggressively.

At that time, everything felt strong.

But that’s exactly when danger hides.

The First Warning Signs

On the surface:

Price kept making higher highs.

But underneath:

Momentum divergence appeared.

Volume expanded on up days… but also heavily on down days.

Breakouts required more effort.

Leaders started stalling.

But price was still rising.

This is the dangerous phase:

Distribution inside an uptrend.

Smart money begins selling quietly.

Retail keeps buying breakouts.

The chart still looks bullish.

But internal strength weakens.

The Ego Trap: “I See the Top”

After studying market cycles, I felt confident.

I thought:

“I understand distribution.”

“This looks like late-stage trend.”

“Big correction coming.”

That confidence felt intelligent.

But it was actually premature.

Because identifying weakness is different from timing reversal.

The Early Short Bias (Even Without Shorting)

Vietnam market doesn’t allow easy retail shorting like US.

So instead of shorting,

I began:

Selling winners too early.

Reducing exposure aggressively.

Avoiding strong breakouts.

Looking for topping patterns everywhere.

I shifted from aggressive long to defensive too early.

And that cost opportunity.

The Market Keeps Rising

After I reduced exposure,

VNIndex pushed another 7–8% higher.

Banking stocks had one more breakout leg.

Securities stocks surged again.

The final blow-off phase happened.

Retail traders made large gains.

I watched from mostly cash.

Emotionally painful.

Because I was “right” about late stage…

But early about timing.

Being early in trading

is the same as being wrong.

The Psychological Spiral

Watching market rise without you creates a unique pain:

Not loss.

Not fear.

But regret.

You think:

“I knew it.”

“I saw the warning signs.”

“Why didn’t I stay longer?”

Then ego tries to re-enter aggressively.

This is the moment many traders:

Chase extended breakouts.

Increase size emotionally.

Enter late momentum moves.

That’s where they get trapped.

The Final Surge

The final 2 weeks were explosive.

Small caps surged 15–25%.

Chat groups went crazy.

Every dip reversed instantly.

Classic blow-off behavior.

I re-entered one breakout late.

Position size slightly larger than usual.

Two days green.

Then massive reversal candle.

Heavy distribution.

Stop hit quickly.

That one loss erased emotional confidence.

Now frustration + regret combined.

Worst mental state for trading.

The Real Top

The actual top wasn’t dramatic at first.

No immediate crash.

Just:

Failed breakout.

Lower high.

Heavy volume sell days.

Then banking stocks broke structure.

Then securities followed.

Then margin unwinding began.

And within weeks,

VNIndex corrected sharply.

Eventually dropping significantly.

My early thesis was correct.

But my execution timing was flawed.

The Deep Lesson: Timing Over Intelligence

You can analyze correctly.

You can understand cycles.

You can see distribution.

But market turns only when:

Liquidity shifts.

Large players complete selling.

Retail demand exhausts.

You cannot force that timing.

You must wait for confirmation.

The Confirmation Signal I Ignored

Looking back,

the real signal was not divergence.

It was:

Failed breakout + sector leadership collapse.

When leading sectors fail together,

that’s structural weakness.

But until leaders break,

trend remains intact.

I anticipated collapse before structure confirmed.

That’s ego.

Professional traders respect structure.

They don’t predict collapse.

They react to breakdown.

The Cost of Being Early

Financially:

I missed final 8–10% upside.

Emotionally:

Frustration led to one impulsive late trade.

Mentally:

Confidence temporarily damaged.

But more importantly,

I learned something powerful:

Top detection is not about spotting weakness.

It’s about waiting for breakdown.

The Shift in Framework

After this experience, I changed rules:

Instead of asking:

“Is this the top?”

I ask:

“Has structure broken?”

New criteria:

Leader sector breaks weekly structure.

Index closes below 20-week moving average.

Distribution volume dominates accumulation.

Until then:

Trend is intact.

Why Tops Are Harder Than Bottoms

Bottoms form with panic.

Fear is visible.

Tops form with euphoria.

Greed hides weakness.

Retail buys strength.

Smart money sells strength.

That asymmetry makes tops subtle.

In Vietnam market, especially in VNIndex cycles,

distribution often lasts weeks.

Sharp crashes only happen after distribution completes.

The Dangerous Thought: “This Time Is Different”

Near market tops, narratives appear:

“Valuations justified.”

“Liquidity strong.”

“Macro improving.”

“Foreign buying.”

Rational explanations support price.

But price can disconnect from reality temporarily.

The lesson:

Don’t argue fundamentals.

Follow structure.

The Emotional Maturity Upgrade

After that experience, I stopped trying to predict.

Prediction feels smart.

Reaction feels humble.

But reaction protects capital.

Now when market is strong:

I ride until structure breaks.

When structure breaks:

I exit without debate.

No dramatic forecasts.

No ego battles.

Another Key Insight: Scaling Out, Not All Out

Instead of fully exiting early,

better strategy is scaling.

When late-stage signals appear:

Reduce position 30%.

Tighten stop.

Monitor leaders.

If strength continues,

you still participate.

If weakness expands,

you’re already lighter.

Binary decisions are emotionally heavy.

Gradual reduction is psychologically stable.

Vietnam Market Specific Behavior

In VNIndex cycles:

Banking leads early and late.

Securities explode near peak.

Small caps surge final phase.

Volume peaks before price peaks.

Watch those signals carefully.

Especially securities stocks.

When they go vertical late-stage,

risk increases dramatically.

The Professional Mindset

Professional traders don’t aim to:

Catch exact top.

Catch exact bottom.

They aim to:

Capture middle 60–70% of move.

That’s where probability is highest.

Edges live in expansion phase,

not turning points.

The Long-Term Result

After integrating this lesson:

I stopped trying to outsmart trend.

I waited for confirmation.

I scaled exposure logically.

I avoided emotional re-entry.

Drawdowns reduced.

Stress reduced.

Consistency improved.

Missing last 10% is acceptable.

Getting trapped in first 20% of decline is not.

The Psychological Evolution

There are stages in trader development:

Stage 1:

Chase momentum blindly.

Stage 2:

Try to predict tops and bottoms.

Stage 3:

Respect structure and react.

Stage 4:

Adapt exposure to environment calmly.

Catching tops feels impressive.

Surviving cycles is professional.

The Most Important Takeaway

Market tops are seductive.

They reward confidence.

They punish impatience.

They expose ego.

If you try to be hero,

you get humbled.

If you wait for confirmation,

you survive.

And survival compounds.