CNA Explains: Why China Mattered in the Expiry of the Last US–Russia Nuclear Treaty
The collapse of the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, the New START treaty, has triggered significant concern in international diplomatic and security circles. While the treaty's expiry in 2026 was largely driven by the geopolitical dynamics between the U.S. and Russia, the role of China looms large in the background. Beijing’s growing nuclear arsenal and refusal to be part of the treaty negotiations became a key factor that complicated discussions between Washington and Moscow, driving both nations toward a new phase in the arms race.
Background: The End of New START
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, was the last remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia after a series of Cold War-era treaties were abandoned or expired. The treaty imposed limits on the number of deployed nuclear warheads, delivery systems, and missile defense systems, with an aim to curb the further spread of nuclear weapons and ensure transparency between the two countries.
However, the expiration of the treaty at the beginning of 2026 marks a crucial shift in the nuclear arms control landscape. Over the past decade, both the U.S. and Russia have pointed to one primary reason for the growing irrelevance of arms control treaties: the rise of China as a nuclear power. With Beijing accelerating its nuclear capabilities and refusing to engage in arms control talks, the U.S. and Russia have found it increasingly difficult to address their nuclear arsenals without considering China’s growing nuclear stockpile.
China's Nuclear Growth: A Strategic Concern
China’s nuclear policy has historically been characterized by its minimalist approach — maintaining a relatively small arsenal under the principle of "no first use" (NFU), which signified its commitment to not being the first to deploy nuclear weapons in a conflict. However, in recent years, China has significantly expanded its nuclear weapons capabilities, which has stirred growing unease in Washington and Moscow. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that China has increased its nuclear warhead stockpile by over 30% in the past decade, with plans to build a nuclear triad capable of delivering missiles from land, air, and sea.
This expansion is part of China’s broader military modernization efforts, which include the development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), nuclear-capable submarines, and advanced missile defense systems. Unlike Russia and the U.S., China has not agreed to engage in multilateral arms control talks, leading both superpowers to question the fairness and effectiveness of a nuclear treaty that leaves out the third-largest nuclear power.
The U.S. and Russia's Dilemma
The U.S. and Russia have both acknowledged that arms control efforts are no longer effective in the absence of China’s involvement. In 2019, the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, accusing Russia of violating its terms, but also expressing frustration at China’s growing missile capabilities, which were not subject to the treaty’s limitations. Similarly, the Open Skies Treaty and other arms control agreements also began to unravel, with the issue of China's nuclear expansion surfacing as a key motivator for these exits.
President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have expressed a desire to continue nuclear arms control talks, yet without China’s involvement, both sides are finding it difficult to agree on the next steps. The New START treaty’s expiration is thus viewed as a symbol of how difficult it has become to manage nuclear competition in the 21st century without including China in the framework. As both the U.S. and Russia focus on their strategic relations, China’s refusal to engage in arms control negotiations casts a shadow over any potential future agreements.
China's Stance: Non-Engagement with Arms Control Talks
China’s decision not to engage in nuclear arms control discussions is not a recent development. For years, Beijing has maintained that its nuclear stockpile is proportionate to its national defense needs and that it remains committed to its NFU policy. While this stance was reasonable during the Cold War, as China’s nuclear arsenal was far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, the dynamic has changed with Beijing’s ongoing military expansion.
China has consistently rejected U.S. and Russian calls for including its nuclear capabilities in any future arms control agreements, arguing that its stockpile remains small in comparison to those of the U.S. and Russia, and that the U.S. should reduce its own nuclear forces first. The Chinese government views nuclear arms control agreements as a relic of the Cold War era and believes that they should evolve to reflect the changing global security environment. Beijing has also cited the fact that it faces no nuclear threat from its immediate neighbors, particularly from Russia, and as such, sees no immediate need to alter its nuclear posture.
However, this position has led to frustration in Washington and Moscow. U.S. policymakers have argued that strategic stability cannot be achieved with a treaty framework that ignores China’s growing influence in the nuclear arena. Russia has expressed similar concerns, with some officials even suggesting that without China’s participation, arms control agreements between the U.S. and Russia are essentially futile.
The Impact on Global Nuclear Stability
The absence of China from arms control negotiations could have far-reaching consequences for global nuclear stability. As the U.S., Russia, and China account for more than 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, a trilateral arms control agreement would be necessary for effective global non-proliferation efforts. Without such a framework, the risk of nuclear arms races and the potential for miscalculations in the use of nuclear weapons will continue to rise.
In recent years, China has also pursued closer military cooperation with Russia, including joint military exercises and shared interests in countering U.S. global influence. This cooperation complicates the arms control situation even further, as a strategic alignment between the two nuclear powers raises concerns in Washington about the long-term balance of power.
Possible Pathways Forward
Despite the challenges, there are possible pathways for addressing these growing tensions. One approach could be for the U.S., Russia, and China to engage in trilateral talks with a focus on nuclear transparency and risk reduction. However, convincing China to participate in such discussions would require significant diplomatic engagement and a shift in Beijing’s long-standing stance on nuclear arms control.
Another option could involve developing new arms control frameworks that consider the technological advancements of modern warfare, such as cyber capabilities, missile defense, and space-based weapons systems. As these technologies increasingly intertwine with nuclear deterrence, the next generation of arms control agreements may need to adapt to the realities of contemporary global security challenges.
Conclusion
The expiry of the New START treaty marks a pivotal moment in nuclear arms control, but it is not solely the result of U.S. and Russian dynamics. China’s growing nuclear capabilities and its refusal to join in arms control talks have played a crucial role in the breakdown of the arms control framework that once governed U.S.-Russia relations. As global security continues to evolve, the need for a new, inclusive approach to nuclear arms control is becoming more urgent. Whether this involves trilateral talks or new multilateral frameworks remains uncertain, but without China’s involvement, meaningful progress will be difficult to achieve.
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