How everyone can win from a ILA deal

"In the endgame, an error can be decisive, and we are rarely presented with a second chance." -Paul Keres

Understanding the conflict and demands

Port workers across the East Coast are currently on strike. Their labor union has two primary demands: a $5 per hour wage increase each year for the next six years, and a complete ban on automation at the ports, including cranes, gates, and container-moving trucks involved in loading and unloading processes.

The strike's goals are clear: higher pay and job security for the future. However, as an observer, I find that their demands don’t entirely align with their goals.

On Pay:

If fair compensation is truly the aim, the union should base wage demands on an economic analysis. They could look at pre-pandemic pay levels that were deemed fair and adjust for inflation and experience. Instead of a fixed $5 raise each year, they could negotiate for a raise that aligns with inflation, with an additional percentage (1-5%) to account for experience. This approach would ensure that workers' wages keep pace with the economy and their growing expertise over time.

Another smaller argument made by the union is that during COVID, the workers were exposed to extra risk and were not compensated for it while "others" profited hand over fist due to supply shortages. Now setting aside the factual accuracy of this claim, an additional amount can be given for each of 3 years the employees worked during covid (2020-2022) if they worked close to fulltime and are currently employed with the union.

On Automation:

It’s important to recognize that automation is inevitable in the long run. Instead of resisting it, the union should consider embracing automation while negotiating its benefits. For instance, they could propose that savings from automation be invested in training workers for higher-paying roles, such as upper management, logistics coordination, or even tech-related jobs like coding. This would benefit both the port operators, who would gain efficiency and the workers, whose earning potential would not be affected as their jobs got made more efficient by machines.

While this plan benefits most workers, it might not fully accommodate older employees nearing retirement. To address this, the union could offer a segmented approach: workers under 50 could follow the plan outlined above, while older workers could choose between a buyout (e.g., $250,000 for early retirement) or a more moderate wage increase of $3 per hour every other year for six years.

Long-Term Strategy:

The union should keep in mind that demanding higher costs now could push port operators to further invest in automation, which would reduce the need for human workers in the long run. Since machines will likely take over many tasks within the next few decades, the union should use its current bargaining power to sustain high-income roles for the future.

Lastly, the longer the strike continues, the more motivated port operators will be to ensure it never happens again—potentially by relying more on automation. The International Longshore Association should aim for a generational deal, one that both workers and operators will be proud of in a decade. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) must prioritize where they will stake their claim in regards to compensation and automation.

For anyone who has thought about the issue, it is clear that embracing the automation trend is the smarter choice. Failing to strike an optimal deal will hurt the industry in the short term, but its devastating effects will increasingly become apparent as the cargo providing them their jobs gets rerouted.

History is full of examples of industries failing to adapt, trading long-term stability for short-term gains. A quick drive through Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, upstate New York, or Missouri will etch the image in one's mind.

What many fail to acknowledge is that next agreement between the longshoremen and the ports marks the beginning of an endgame—one that the longshoremen are sure to lose. However, they still have time to set themselves up for success in their next act, potentially even emerging stronger.

The question remains: will the union chart a new path forward or watch its industry sink at sea?

Atlas Aristotle