Quiet Storms Today, but a Polar Vortex Collapse Still Shapes February’s Extreme Weather

Saturday, February 28, 2026, brings a relatively calm convective setup across the United States. The official Day-3 outlook shows no organized severe thunderstorm risk nationwide. A few scattered thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula, northern California, southern Oregon, and possibly the southern Plains into Saturday night, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Even so, today’s quieter storm picture exists within a much larger and more significant weather pattern. A major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in February has disrupted the polar vortex, contributing to extreme cold waves and major winter storms across North America and Europe. The result has been one of the most notable late-winter pattern shifts in recent years.

This article explains what is happening today and why the broader atmospheric setup still matters as winter transitions toward spring.



Today’s Storm Outlook: Limited Severe Risk

For today, no organized severe thunderstorm areas are outlined anywhere in the country. That means no enhanced or moderate risk zones and no widespread threat of damaging winds, large hail, or tornado outbreaks.

However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still possible in a few regions:

The Florida Peninsula may see thunderstorms due to warm, moist air interacting with weak disturbances.

Northern California and southern Oregon could experience showers and storms tied to Pacific systems moving inland.

Parts of the southern Plains may see storms later tonight as moisture increases ahead of a weak boundary.


These storms are expected to remain below severe thresholds for most areas. Some gusty winds or brief heavy rainfall could occur locally, but the overall pattern is relatively stable compared to earlier this month.



The Bigger Story: A Polar Vortex Collapse

While surface weather appears quiet in many regions today, the larger atmospheric pattern remains influenced by a dramatic stratospheric event.

In February 2026, researchers identified what they described as an exceptional Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. During an SSW, temperatures in the stratosphere — roughly 10 to 30 miles above the Earth — rise rapidly over the Arctic. This disrupts the polar vortex, a band of strong winds that normally keeps the coldest air confined near the North Pole.

In this case, the warming weakened and split the polar vortex. Instead of remaining concentrated over the Arctic, cold air masses were displaced southward into North America and Europe.

This process is sometimes referred to in public discussion as a “polar vortex collapse.” While the vortex does not disappear entirely, its structure becomes unstable, allowing Arctic air to move into lower latitudes.



How Cold It Became

Following the stratospheric disruption, parts of the United States experienced temperatures up to 30 degrees Fahrenheit below seasonal averages.

The Midwest, Northeast, and portions of the central Plains saw extended stretches of below-normal temperatures. In some areas, daily records were challenged or broken.

Europe also experienced sharp cold outbreaks as the split vortex allowed frigid air to surge into western and central parts of the continent.

These extreme swings were not constant everywhere, but the pattern created significant variability — with some regions swinging from mild to very cold in a short period.



A Major February Blizzard

One of the most visible impacts of the pattern was a significant February blizzard in parts of New England.

As Arctic air interacted with Atlantic moisture, heavy snowfall and strong winds combined to produce blizzard conditions in several states. Travel disruptions, power outages, and school closures followed.

The storm demonstrated how stratospheric changes can influence surface weather weeks later. While not every winter storm is directly tied to a polar vortex disruption, the altered jet stream pattern often increases the odds of high-impact systems.



Why Sudden Stratospheric Warming Matters

Sudden Stratospheric Warming events do not occur every year, but when they do, they can influence weather patterns for several weeks.

The typical sequence works like this:

1. Stratospheric temperatures rise sharply over the Arctic.


2. The polar vortex weakens or splits.


3. The jet stream becomes more amplified or wavy.


4. Cold Arctic air spills south into mid-latitude regions.



These shifts can lead to prolonged cold spells, heavy snow events, and increased storminess. The effects often appear one to three weeks after the initial warming event.

In February 2026, the timing aligned with the latter part of winter, amplifying seasonal impacts.



Why Today Feels Calmer

Despite the broader cold pattern, today’s lack of severe storms highlights an important point: large-scale atmospheric drivers do not always translate into daily extreme weather.

At the moment, the jet stream configuration does not support widespread severe thunderstorm development. Moisture return in the central and eastern United States remains limited compared to typical spring setups.

Winter air masses are still dominant in many regions, which reduces instability — a key ingredient for severe storms.

In other words, the atmosphere can be active on a global scale while remaining relatively quiet locally.



Could More Storms Develop in Early Spring?

Even though today’s outlook is calm, the larger pattern could still produce high-impact systems in early March.

When the polar vortex weakens, the jet stream often becomes more variable. That can create strong contrasts between warm and cold air masses. These temperature differences help fuel storms.

As the sun angle increases and spring approaches, the overlap of lingering Arctic air and strengthening Gulf moisture can set the stage for:

Late-season snowstorms in the northern U.S.

Mixed precipitation events in transitional zones.

Early severe thunderstorm outbreaks in southern states.


Forecasters will monitor how quickly the stratospheric effects fade. Some SSW events influence surface weather for up to six weeks.



Temperature Swings Continue

Another key feature of this pattern is volatility.

Instead of steady cold or steady warmth, many regions have experienced rapid changes. One week may bring freezing conditions; the next may see a sharp warm-up.

This variability is typical after a polar vortex disruption. The jet stream becomes more amplified, producing large ridges and troughs. Ridges bring warmer air northward; troughs send cold air south.

For agriculture, infrastructure, and energy demand, these swings can be challenging. Freeze-thaw cycles affect roads and buildings. Utilities must manage spikes in heating demand.



Impacts Beyond the U.S.

The February 2026 stratospheric event has also influenced weather in Europe.

Several countries reported extended cold spells, increased snowfall, and transportation disruptions. As in North America, the changes were not uniform, but the altered jet stream contributed to significant regional weather events.

Meteorologists note that SSW events often have hemispheric impacts because the polar vortex circulates around the entire Arctic region.



Looking Ahead to March

As February ends, the main question is how long the stratospheric influence will persist.

Forecast models suggest the polar vortex may gradually reorganize, but the atmosphere does not instantly return to normal. Residual effects can linger.

Early March could feature:

Continued below-normal temperatures in parts of the eastern U.S.

Additional winter storms where cold air remains in place.

Increasing thunderstorm potential in southern states as warmer air returns.


While today does not feature organized severe weather, the overall pattern remains dynamic.



A Transition Period

Late February often represents a transition between winter and spring. This year, that transition has been shaped by a significant upper-atmospheric event.

Today’s scattered storms in Florida and along parts of the West Coast are relatively minor compared to the cold waves and blizzard conditions earlier in the month. However, they serve as a reminder that weather systems continue to evolve.

The key takeaway is that a calm convective outlook does not mean the atmosphere is stable on a broader scale. The polar vortex disruption has already influenced extreme conditions, and its effects may continue to shape weather patterns in the coming weeks.

For now, much of the country can expect a quieter Saturday in terms of severe thunderstorms. But as March approaches, forecasters will continue watching for the next interaction between lingering Arctic air and strengthening spring systems.

The story of February 2026 has been one of contrast: calm days mixed with intense cold and powerful winter storms. As the season shifts, that contrast may remain a defining feature of the weeks ahead.